Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on November 12?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 90¢ · $70 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$70.12
$0.01
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 88.6¢ | $29.22 | $29.34 | +$0.12 | 53% 5575-4959 (10534) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 89.2¢ | $19.47 | $19.42 | -$0.05 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 88.5¢ | $16.87 | $16.95 | +$0.09 | 78% 314-87 (401) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $3.74 | $3.74 | +$0 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.5¢ | $2.83 | $0.67 | -$0.14 | 54% 445-377 (822) |
Invested
$29.22
Value
$29.34
PnL
+$0.12
Record
53%
5575-4959 (10534)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.47
Value
$19.42
PnL
-$0.05
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$16.87
Value
$16.95
PnL
+$0.09
Record
78%
314-87 (401)
Invested
$3.74
Value
$3.74
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
Invested
$2.83
Value
$0.67
PnL
-$0.14
Record
54%
445-377 (822)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.