Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on November 12?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 50¢ · $73 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$72.91
-$6.65
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-14 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 47%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 53.2¢ | $20.19 | $17.1 | -$3.1 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $13.8 | $13.5 | -$0.3 | 40% 1455-2158 (3613) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $10.4 | $9 | -$1.4 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $9.2 | $9 | -$0.2 | 27% 499-1349 (1848) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 53.7¢ | $10.23 | $8.57 | -$1.65 | 79% 375-99 (474) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $7.89 | $7.89 | +$0 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $7.85 | $7.85 | +$0 | 80% 558-142 (700) |
Invested
$20.19
Value
$17.1
PnL
-$3.1
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$13.5
PnL
-$0.3
Record
40%
1455-2158 (3613)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$10.4
Value
$9
PnL
-$1.4
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$9
PnL
-$0.2
Record
27%
499-1349 (1848)
Invested
$10.23
Value
$8.57
PnL
-$1.65
Record
79%
375-99 (474)
Invested
$7.89
Value
$7.89
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$7.85
Value
$7.85
PnL
+$0
Record
80%
558-142 (700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.