Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 64¢ · $251 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$250.98
$7.13
61.7¢ → 63.5¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 62¢ | $176.08 | $180.34 | +$4.26 | 29% 237-575 (812) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 61.8¢ | $20.37 | $20.44 | +$0.07 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 58.3¢ | $28.77 | $13.28 | +$2.17 | 54% 383-321 (704) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $12.8 | $12.7 | -$0.1 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 61.5¢ | $12.29 | $12.4 | +$0.11 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 58.7¢ | $11.19 | $11.81 | +$0.62 | 79% 286-77 (363) |
Invested
$176.08
Value
$180.34
PnL
+$4.26
Record
29%
237-575 (812)
Invested
$20.37
Value
$20.44
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
Invested
$28.77
Value
$13.28
PnL
+$2.17
Record
54%
383-321 (704)
Invested
$12.8
Value
$12.7
PnL
-$0.1
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$12.29
Value
$12.4
PnL
+$0.11
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
Invested
$11.19
Value
$11.81
PnL
+$0.62
Record
79%
286-77 (363)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.