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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on November 12?

Resolved No. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

10

No 60%

Total Value

$45.25

Combined PnL

-$4.4

Smart Money Signal

No

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%
No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders
Total Value$45.25
Total Shares45
Combined PnL-$1.44
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares6
Combined PnL-$2.95
No — 70%Yes — 30%
CI
cigarettes<$100
No

Invested

$31.65

Value

$32.97

PnL

+$1.32

Record

53%

6285-5568 (11853)

GH
ghorrock<$100
No

Invested

$7.36

Value

$7.2

PnL

-$0.16

Record

54%

1043-906 (1949)

0X
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100
No

Invested

$5.17

Value

$5.08

PnL

-$0.09

Record

46%

579-670 (1249)

LucerysCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$19.37

Value

—

PnL

-$1.18

Record

36%

3528-6156 (9684)

AL
alex20011<$100
No

Invested

$17.17

Value

—

PnL

-$1.24

Record

44%

1112-1435 (2547)

KL
klli27CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

—

PnL

-$1.41

Record

28%

530-1393 (1923)

HA
haveagoodday<$100
No

Invested

$28.5

Value

—

PnL

-$1.23

Record

40%

1502-2235 (3737)

LU
luciebot<$100
No

Invested

$18.38

Value

—

PnL

-$1.06

Record

32%

560-1188 (1748)

0X
0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

—

PnL

-$0.36

Record

60%

534-358 (892)

24
241532532432<$100
No

Invested

$24.96

Value

—

PnL

+$1.01

Record

37%

464-794 (1258)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x36461505...94d4cc
Slug
highest-temperature-in-istanbul-on-november-12-2026-20c

Traders in this Market

CI

cigarettes

No — $32.97

+$1.32
GH

ghorrock

No — $7.2

-$0.16
0X

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

No — $5.08

-$0.09

Lucerys

CTR

Yes — $0

-$1.18
AL

alex20011

No — $0

-$1.24
KL

klli27

CTR

Yes — $0

-$1.41
HA

haveagoodday

No — $0

-$1.23
LU

luciebot

No — $0

-$1.06
0X

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

CTR

Yes — $0

-$0.36
24

241532532432

No — $0

+$1.01
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