Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on November 12?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $134 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$133.56
-$2.79
99¢ → 98¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 36%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $29.85 | $29.1 | -$0.75 | 40% 1462-2159 (3621) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.4 | -$0.54 | 38% 3346-5401 (8747) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $19.9 | $19.4 | -$0.5 | 53% 5788-5165 (10953) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $19.9 | $19.4 | -$0.5 | 27% 512-1351 (1863) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $19.4 | $19.4 | +$0 | 34% 345-674 (1019) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $17.43 | $16.99 | -$0.44 | 44% 1102-1383 (2485) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $9.93 | $9.86 | -$0.07 | 55% 658-540 (1198) |
Invested
$29.85
Value
$29.1
PnL
-$0.75
Record
40%
1462-2159 (3621)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.4
PnL
-$0.54
Record
38%
3346-5401 (8747)
Invested
$19.9
Value
$19.4
PnL
-$0.5
Record
53%
5788-5165 (10953)
Invested
$19.9
Value
$19.4
PnL
-$0.5
Record
27%
512-1351 (1863)
Invested
$19.4
Value
$19.4
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
345-674 (1019)
Invested
$17.43
Value
$16.99
PnL
-$0.44
Record
44%
1102-1383 (2485)
Invested
$9.93
Value
$9.86
PnL
-$0.07
Record
55%
658-540 (1198)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.