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NoNo
LucerysCTR<$100YesNoNoNoYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on November 12?
Resolved No. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
Yes 60%
Total Value
$23.51
Combined PnL
-$10.45
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 8 top traders (38%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No5 traders
Total Value$23.51
Total Shares24
Combined PnL-$5.96
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares30
Combined PnL-$4.49
No — 63%Yes — 37%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $20 | +$0.04 | 53% 6285-5568 (11853) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $3.5 | $3.51 | +$0.01 | 99% 809-8 (817) |
LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $20.13 | — | -$1.94 | 36% 3528-6156 (9684) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $17.48 | — | -$1.56 | 44% 1112-1435 (2547) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | — | -$1.78 | 28% 530-1393 (1923) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | — | -$2.67 | 40% 1502-2235 (3737) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.73 | — | -$1.73 | 32% 560-1188 (1748) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.82 | — | -$0.82 | 60% 534-358 (892) |
CI
cigarettes<$100Invested
$19.96
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.04
Record
53%
6285-5568 (11853)
1D
1DVSBSTD<$100Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.51
PnL
+$0.01
Record
99%
809-8 (817)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$20.13
Value
—
PnL
-$1.94
Record
36%
3528-6156 (9684)
AL
alex20011<$100Invested
$17.48
Value
—
PnL
-$1.56
Record
44%
1112-1435 (2547)
KL
klli27<$100Invested
$19.96
Value
—
PnL
-$1.78
Record
28%
530-1393 (1923)
HA
haveagoodday<$100Invested
$29.94
Value
—
PnL
-$2.67
Record
40%
1502-2235 (3737)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$1.73
Value
—
PnL
-$1.73
Record
32%
560-1188 (1748)
0X
0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100Invested
$0.82
Value
—
PnL
-$0.82
Record
60%
534-358 (892)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x976da483...ea9392
Slug
highest-temperature-in-istanbul-on-november-12-2026-18c