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No
LucerysCTR<$100YesNoNoNoYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on November 12?
Resolved No. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 75%
Total Value
$30
Combined PnL
-$10.22
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$30
Total Shares30
Combined PnL-$5.71
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares30
Combined PnL-$4.51
No — 57%Yes — 43%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $30 | +$0.03 | 28% 979-2569 (3548) |
LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $20.15 | — | -$1.96 | 36% 3528-6156 (9684) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $17.5 | — | -$1.58 | 44% 1112-1435 (2547) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | — | -$1.8 | 28% 530-1393 (1923) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $29.64 | — | -$2.37 | 40% 1502-2235 (3737) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.73 | — | -$1.73 | 32% 560-1188 (1748) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.82 | — | -$0.82 | 60% 534-358 (892) |
NO
northdrawer<$100Invested
$29.97
Value
$30
PnL
+$0.03
Record
28%
979-2569 (3548)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$20.15
Value
—
PnL
-$1.96
Record
36%
3528-6156 (9684)
AL
alex20011<$100Invested
$17.5
Value
—
PnL
-$1.58
Record
44%
1112-1435 (2547)
KL
klli27<$100Invested
$19.98
Value
—
PnL
-$1.8
Record
28%
530-1393 (1923)
HA
haveagoodday<$100Invested
$29.64
Value
—
PnL
-$2.37
Record
40%
1502-2235 (3737)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$1.73
Value
—
PnL
-$1.73
Record
32%
560-1188 (1748)
0X
0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100Invested
$0.82
Value
—
PnL
-$0.82
Record
60%
534-358 (892)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x96aeacc3...fa7e59
Slug
highest-temperature-in-istanbul-on-november-12-2026-17c