Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or higher on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $94 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$93.78
-$0.15
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $38.09 | $38 | -$0.09 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $25.17 | $25.14 | -$0.03 | 42% 338-475 (813) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $19.92 | $19.9 | -$0.02 | 27% 499-1348 (1847) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $6.03 | $6.03 | +$0 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $2.5 | $2.49 | -$0.01 | 99% 217-2 (219) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $2.22 | $2.21 | -$0 | 40% 657-967 (1624) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$38.09
Value
$38
PnL
-$0.09
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$25.17
Value
$25.14
PnL
-$0.03
Record
42%
338-475 (813)
Invested
$19.92
Value
$19.9
PnL
-$0.02
Record
27%
499-1348 (1847)
Invested
$6.03
Value
$6.03
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.49
PnL
-$0.01
Record
99%
217-2 (219)
Invested
$2.22
Value
$2.21
PnL
-$0
Record
40%
657-967 (1624)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.