Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on November 11?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $665 held · ends Nov 11

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$664.52

Combined PnL

-$4.77

Smart Money Entry

96.2¢ → 97.7¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$664.52

Total Shares673

Combined PnL-$4.77

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 96.4¢	$532.14	$524.53	-$7.61	30% 256-590 (846)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$36.4	$37.08	+$0.68	37% 3136-5367 (8503)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$34.47	$26.6	+$1.36	54% 445-377 (822)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 96¢	$24.26	$24.54	+$0.28	40% 657-967 (1624)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96¢	$19.2	$19.42	+$0.22	53% 5575-4959 (10534)
KL klli27<$100	Noavg 96¢	$19.2	$19.42	+$0.22	27% 499-1348 (1847)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$5.93	$5.9	-$0.02	30% 2654-6198 (8852)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 94.7¢	$4.74	$4.85	+$0.12	39% 1259-1997 (3256)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$2.18	$2.17	-$0.01	46% 317-371 (688)

241532532432

Invested

$532.14

Value

$524.53

PnL

-$7.61

Record

30%

256-590 (846)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$36.4

Value

$37.08

PnL

+$0.68

Record

37%

3136-5367 (8503)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$34.47

Value

$26.6

PnL

+$1.36

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$24.26

Value

$24.54

PnL

+$0.28

Record

40%

657-967 (1624)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.2

Value

$19.42

PnL

+$0.22

Record

53%

5575-4959 (10534)

klli27<$100

Invested

$19.2

Value

$19.42

PnL

+$0.22

Record

27%

499-1348 (1847)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$5.93

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$0.02

Record

30%

2654-6198 (8852)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.74

Value

$4.85

PnL

+$0.12

Record

39%

1259-1997 (3256)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$2.18

Value

$2.17

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

317-371 (688)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.