Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on November 11?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 64¢ · $106 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$106.3
$8.22
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.1¢ | $72.56 | $81.03 | +$8.47 | 28% 209-544 (753) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 61.9¢ | $20.5 | $20.18 | -$0.31 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $3.05 | $3.05 | +$0 | 38% 1223-1986 (3209) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $1.56 | $1.62 | +$0.05 | 84% 481-91 (572) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $0.41 | $0.42 | +$0.01 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
Invested
$72.56
Value
$81.03
PnL
+$8.47
Record
28%
209-544 (753)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$20.5
Value
$20.18
PnL
-$0.31
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$3.05
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1223-1986 (3209)
Invested
$1.56
Value
$1.62
PnL
+$0.05
Record
84%
481-91 (572)
Invested
$0.41
Value
$0.42
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.