Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 51¢ · $209 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$208.55
-$4.96
52.5¢ → 51¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 52.7¢ | $189.77 | $183.65 | -$6.12 | 23% 151-506 (657) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $10.2 | $10.8 | +$0.6 | 35% 2886-5323 (8209) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 51.3¢ | $13.19 | $9.56 | +$0.36 | 52% 247-230 (477) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.7 | +$0.2 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $1.84 | $1.84 | -$0 | 87% 434-63 (497) |
Invested
$189.77
Value
$183.65
PnL
-$6.12
Record
23%
151-506 (657)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$10.2
Value
$10.8
PnL
+$0.6
Record
35%
2886-5323 (8209)
Invested
$13.19
Value
$9.56
PnL
+$0.36
Record
52%
247-230 (477)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.7
PnL
+$0.2
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
Invested
$1.84
Value
$1.84
PnL
-$0
Record
87%
434-63 (497)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.