Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on November 11?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $122 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$121.54
$0.32
98.5¢ → 98.8¢
+0% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 48%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $37.76 | $37.73 | -$0.03 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $19.82 | $19.76 | -$0.06 | 53% 5575-4959 (10534) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $19.8 | $19.76 | -$0.04 | 27% 499-1348 (1847) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $17.02 | $17.32 | +$0.3 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $8.42 | $8.57 | +$0.15 | 54% 445-377 (822) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $5.99 | $5.99 | +$0 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $4.98 | $4.98 | -$0.01 | 42% 338-475 (813) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $4.94 | $4.94 | +$0.01 | 39% 1259-1997 (3256) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | -$0 | 99% 217-2 (219) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$37.76
Value
$37.73
PnL
-$0.03
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$19.82
Value
$19.76
PnL
-$0.06
Record
53%
5575-4959 (10534)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$19.76
PnL
-$0.04
Record
27%
499-1348 (1847)
Invested
$17.02
Value
$17.32
PnL
+$0.3
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
Invested
$8.42
Value
$8.57
PnL
+$0.15
Record
54%
445-377 (822)
Invested
$5.99
Value
$5.99
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$4.98
Value
$4.98
PnL
-$0.01
Record
42%
338-475 (813)
Invested
$4.94
Value
$4.94
PnL
+$0.01
Record
39%
1259-1997 (3256)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$0
Record
99%
217-2 (219)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.