Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $123 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$122.54
-$0.23
99.8¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $48.1 | $48 | -$0.11 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.98 | +$0.02 | 27% 499-1348 (1847) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.92 | -$0.06 | 78% 314-87 (401) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $16.04 | $16 | -$0.04 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $15.18 | $15.14 | -$0.05 | 48% 307-339 (646) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $3.5 | $3.5 | +$0 | 99% 217-2 (219) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$48.1
Value
$48
PnL
-$0.11
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0.02
Record
27%
499-1348 (1847)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.92
PnL
-$0.06
Record
78%
314-87 (401)
Invested
$16.04
Value
$16
PnL
-$0.04
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$15.18
Value
$15.14
PnL
-$0.05
Record
48%
307-339 (646)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
217-2 (219)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.