Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on November 10?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $28 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$28.35
$4.39
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $6.89 | $6.94 | +$0.06 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $2.49 | $6.3 | +$3.81 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $4.86 | $5.2 | +$0.5 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $4.97 | $4.97 | +$0 | 30% 174-414 (588) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $4.92 | $4.94 | +$0.02 | 31% 163-361 (524) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$6.89
Value
$6.94
PnL
+$0.06
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$2.49
Value
$6.3
PnL
+$3.81
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$4.86
Value
$5.2
PnL
+$0.5
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$4.97
Value
$4.97
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
174-414 (588)
Invested
$4.92
Value
$4.94
PnL
+$0.02
Record
31%
163-361 (524)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.