Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on November 10?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 68¢ · $145 held · ends Nov 10

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$144.91

Combined PnL

$2.99

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$53.87

Total Shares215

Combined PnL+$8.55

No8 traders

Total Value$91.04

Total Shares102

Combined PnL-$5.56

Yes — 11%No — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$45.32	$53.87	+$8.55	21% 132-485 (617)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77.2¢	$42.51	$39.69	-$2.82	51% 197-186 (383)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 78.6¢	$30.26	$28.04	-$2.22	89% 409-53 (462)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 75¢	$5.33	$5.11	-$0.21	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 73¢	$3.76	$3.71	-$0.05	28% 153-400 (553)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 72¢	$3.65	$3.65	+$0	36% 462-806 (1268)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 73¢	$3.69	$3.64	-$0.05	35% 138-259 (397)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 75¢	$3.76	$3.61	-$0.15	2% 12-662 (674)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 73¢	$3.65	$3.6	-$0.05	34% 150-294 (444)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.32

Value

$53.87

PnL

+$8.55

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$42.51

Value

$39.69

PnL

-$2.82

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$30.26

Value

$28.04

PnL

-$2.22

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$5.33

Value

$5.11

PnL

-$0.21

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.76

Value

$3.71

PnL

-$0.05

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.65

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.69

Value

$3.64

PnL

-$0.05

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$3.76

Value

$3.61

PnL

-$0.15

Record

12-662 (674)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$0.05

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.