Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on November 10?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 45¢ · $185 held · ends Nov 10

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$185.48

Combined PnL

-$0.11

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$27.43

Total Shares42

Combined PnL+$2.68

No4 traders

Total Value$17.12

Total Shares43

Combined PnL-$2.79

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 48.2¢	$147.57	$140.93	-$6.64	21% 132-485 (617)
└ No leg	Noavg 48.2¢	$88.36	$73.32	-$15.04
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47.3¢	$59.21	$67.61	+$8.4
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 47.5¢	$19.15	$20.34	+$1.19	89% 409-53 (462)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 46.8¢	$9.53	$8.16	-$1.38	36% 462-806 (1268)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 42.7¢	$5.61	$7.1	+$1.49	51% 197-186 (383)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$4.67	$4.06	-$0.61	34% 150-294 (444)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$3.34	$2.84	-$0.5	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$2.37	$2.06	-$0.31	35% 138-259 (397)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$147.57

Value

$140.93

PnL

-$6.64

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Both legs:

Invested

$19.15

Value

$20.34

PnL

+$1.19

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$9.53

Value

$8.16

PnL

-$1.38

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.61

Value

$7.1

PnL

+$1.49

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$4.67

Value

$4.06

PnL

-$0.61

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$3.34

Value

$2.84

PnL

-$0.5

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$2.37

Value

$2.06

PnL

-$0.31

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.