Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on November 1?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 88¢ · $117 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$116.97
$8.46
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 88.4¢ | $70.12 | $70.96 | +$0.85 | 59% 1862-1301 (3163) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $71.97 | $28.85 | +$7.61 | 53% 6624-5811 (12435) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.6¢ | $17.16 | $17.16 | +$0 | 55% 439-359 (798) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.