Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on October 31?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 87¢ · $392 held · ends Oct 31

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$392.45

Combined PnL

$47.82

Smart Money Entry

84.1¢ → 86.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$233.5

Total Shares266

Combined PnL+$4.49

Yes2 traders

Total Value$158.96

Total Shares1,103

Combined PnL+$43.33

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 84¢	$168.88	$173.91	+$5.03	55% 410-333 (743)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 10.2¢	$106.14	$150.77	+$44.63	50% 647-636 (1283)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85¢	$41.25	$39.59	+$0.86	57% 13766-10533 (24299)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 83¢	$21.6	$20	-$1.4	20% 312-1273 (1585)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.6¢	$8.55	$8.19	-$1.3	59% 1805-1255 (3060)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$168.88

Value

$173.91

PnL

+$5.03

Record

55%

410-333 (743)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$106.14

Value

$150.77

PnL

+$44.63

Record

50%

647-636 (1283)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$41.25

Value

$39.59

PnL

+$0.86

Record

57%

13766-10533 (24299)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$21.6

Value

$20

PnL

-$1.4

Record

20%

312-1273 (1585)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.55

Value

$8.19

PnL

-$1.3

Record

59%

1805-1255 (3060)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.