Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 30?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 59¢ · $362 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$362.08
$16.61
61.3¢ → 59¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 61.3¢ | $212.35 | $228.47 | +$16.12 | 47% 606-687 (1293) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 62.1¢ | $124.7 | $120 | -$0.46 | 24% 285-895 (1180) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 54.9¢ | $7.29 | $7.44 | +$0.15 | 53% 6381-5587 (11968) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $4.91 | $5.75 | +$0.84 | 57% 13272-10114 (23386) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $0.46 | $0.43 | -$0.04 | 60% 1636-1103 (2739) |
Invested
$212.35
Value
$228.47
PnL
+$16.12
Record
47%
606-687 (1293)
IstarothInvested
$124.7
Value
$120
PnL
-$0.46
Record
24%
285-895 (1180)
Invested
$7.29
Value
$7.44
PnL
+$0.15
Record
53%
6381-5587 (11968)
Invested
$4.91
Value
$5.75
PnL
+$0.84
Record
57%
13272-10114 (23386)
Invested
$0.46
Value
$0.43
PnL
-$0.04
Record
60%
1636-1103 (2739)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.