Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on October 29?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 61¢ · $502 held · ends Oct 29

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$502.03

Combined PnL

-$8

Smart Money Entry

53.2¢ → 60.5¢

+14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$439.81

Total Shares545

Combined PnL-$8.16

Yes2 traders

Total Value$62.23

Total Shares73

Combined PnL+$0.16

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 53.1¢	$380.46	$373.47	-$6.99	46% 584-672 (1256)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 54¢	$54.66	$54.09	-$0.57	50% 1654-1642 (3296)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$52.7	$51.01	-$1.22	27% 281-776 (1057)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 44.7¢	$9.84	$11.22	+$1.38	60% 1599-1049 (2648)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 51¢	$10.2	$9.8	-$0.4	61% 20689-13109 (33798)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 59¢	$11.8	$2.45	-$0.2	53% 6327-5543 (11870)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$380.46

Value

$373.47

PnL

-$6.99

Record

46%

584-672 (1256)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$54.66

Value

$54.09

PnL

-$0.57

Record

50%

1654-1642 (3296)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.7

Value

$51.01

PnL

-$1.22

Record

27%

281-776 (1057)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.84

Value

$11.22

PnL

+$1.38

Record

60%

1599-1049 (2648)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$10.2

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$0.4

Record

61%

20689-13109 (33798)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$11.8

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

6327-5543 (11870)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.