Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on October 28?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 31¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Yes31¢No69¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$220.6

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 31¢

-41% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,995

Combined PnL+$216.12

No2 traders

Total Value$79.56

Total Shares92

Combined PnL+$4.48

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 54¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$159.77	50% 1654-1642 (3296)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 50.5¢	$474.5	$558.69	+$84.19	46% 584-672 (1256)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 58.7¢	$55.13	$53	-$1.45	27% 281-776 (1057)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 47.9¢	$72.47	$44.63	-$27.84	60% 1599-1049 (2648)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 53.9¢	$29.02	$26.56	+$5.94	53% 6327-5543 (11870)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,568.7

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$159.77

Record

50%

1654-1642 (3296)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$474.5

Value

$558.69

PnL

+$84.19

Record

46%

584-672 (1256)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$55.13

Value

$53

PnL

-$1.45

Record

27%

281-776 (1057)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.47

Value

$44.63

PnL

-$27.84

Record

60%

1599-1049 (2648)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$29.02

Value

$26.56

PnL

+$5.94

Record

53%

6327-5543 (11870)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.1%

31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$202.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

302.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.