Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on October 28?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 62¢ · $644 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
2 arb excluded
$643.66
-$60.44
74.1¢ → 62¢
-16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 74.2¢ | $330.77 | $274.19 | -$56.58 | 46% 566-656 (1222) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 73.3¢ | $189.42 | $185.6 | -$2.8 | 30% 277-642 (919) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73.3¢ | $136.12 | $107.65 | -$28.49 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28¢ | $51.94 | $77.95 | +$25.69 | |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 67.6¢ | $61.53 | $72.59 | +$11.07 | 61% 1550-997 (2547) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.6¢ | $28.15 | $43.46 | +$15.31 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 67.6¢ | $33.38 | $29.13 | -$4.24 | |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.4¢ | $68.74 | $65.18 | -$3.56 | 62% 1431-870 (2301) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $43.14 | $43.12 | -$0.02 | 57% 12943-9852 (22795) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 61.8¢ | $15.45 | $2.97 | -$0.28 | 53% 6266-5497 (11763) |
Invested
$330.77
Value
$274.19
PnL
-$56.58
Record
46%
566-656 (1222)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$189.42
Value
$185.6
PnL
-$2.8
Record
30%
277-642 (919)
Both legs:
Invested
$61.53
Value
$72.59
PnL
+$11.07
Record
61%
1550-997 (2547)
Both legs:
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$68.74
Value
$65.18
PnL
-$3.56
Record
62%
1431-870 (2301)
Invested
$43.14
Value
$43.12
PnL
-$0.02
Record
57%
12943-9852 (22795)
Invested
$15.45
Value
$2.97
PnL
-$0.28
Record
53%
6266-5497 (11763)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.