Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on November 8?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 59¢ · $198 held · ended Nov 8

Yes59¢No41¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$198

Combined PnL

-$89.81

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 58.5¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$189.46

Total Shares389

Combined PnL-$92.09

No3 traders

Total Value$8.53

Total Shares17

Combined PnL+$2.27

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 41.2¢	$451.29	$98.22	-$26.18	37% 913-1562 (2475)
BI Bilberry	Yesavg 67.4¢	$126.05	$56.13	-$69.93	53% 4150-3716 (7866)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$13.42	$16.49	+$3.06	54% 10777-9308 (20085)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 69.4¢	$10.32	$10.58	+$0.26	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 54.2¢	$7.34	$8.04	+$0.69	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$2.46	$5.22	+$2.76	28% 3048-7956 (11004)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 38.2¢	$1.94	$1.75	-$0.19	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 37.5¢	$1.86	$1.56	-$0.3	44% 2445-3051 (5496)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$451.29

Value

$98.22

PnL

-$26.18

Record

37%

913-1562 (2475)

Bilberry

Yes

Invested

$126.05

Value

$56.13

PnL

-$69.93

Record

53%

4150-3716 (7866)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.42

Value

$16.49

PnL

+$3.06

Record

54%

10777-9308 (20085)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.32

Value

$10.58

PnL

+$0.26

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.34

Value

$8.04

PnL

+$0.69

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$2.46

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$2.76

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$1.94

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$0.19

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.56

PnL

-$0.3

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.