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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Houston be 59°F or below on November 8?

Resolved No. 92% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Yes 86%

Total Value

$100

Combined PnL

-$44.86

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 13 top traders (92%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$100

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$0.1

Yes12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares570

Combined PnL-$44.96

No — 8%Yes — 92%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$99.9	$100	+$0.1	97% 59717-1869 (61586)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$19.04	—	-$36.23	20% 977-3823 (4800)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.16	—	-$0.19	43% 5572-7255 (12827)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$3.23	—	-$5.58	25% 2365-7040 (9405)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.58	—	-$1.82	47% 47428-53893 (101321)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	-$0.68	22% 3414-11955 (15369)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	—	-$0.45	35% 1158-2115 (3273)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	30% 35457-83867 (119324)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	—	—	+$0	43% 18536-24186 (42722)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	—	—	+$0	30% 2855-6557 (9412)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	—	—	+$0	46% 6896-8155 (15051)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	—	—	+$0	69% 16764-7368 (24132)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	—	—	+$0	50% 9328-9390 (18718)

Invested

$99.9

Value

$100

PnL

+$0.1

Record

97%

59717-1869 (61586)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Invested

$19.04

Value

—

PnL

-$36.23

Record

20%

977-3823 (4800)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$0.16

Value

—

PnL

-$0.19

Record

43%

5572-7255 (12827)

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

$3.23

Value

—

PnL

-$5.58

Record

25%

2365-7040 (9405)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$0.58

Value

—

PnL

-$1.82

Record

47%

47428-53893 (101321)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

-$0.68

Record

22%

3414-11955 (15369)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$0.45

Value

—

PnL

-$0.45

Record

35%

1158-2115 (3273)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

35457-83867 (119324)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

18536-24186 (42722)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

2855-6557 (9412)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

6896-8155 (15051)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

16764-7368 (24132)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

9328-9390 (18718)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 13 top traders (92%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x575ffeee...fa08e5

Slug

highest-temperature-in-houston-on-november-8-2026-59forbelow

Traders in this Market

1DVSBSTD

No — $100

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes — $0

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Yes — $0

hello.67

Yes — $0

qwen300.fund

Yes — $0

luciebot

Yes — $0

anothercoin

Yes — $0

balthazar

Yes — $0

Lucerys

Yes — $0

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Yes — $0

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