Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on November 5?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 100¢ · $449 held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$448.77

Combined PnL

$0.94

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$445.83

Total Shares446

Combined PnL-$0.01

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.93

Total Shares147

Combined PnL+$0.95

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer	Noavg 99.9¢	$104.9	$104.9	+$0	61% 15934-10208 (26142)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$97.36	$97.35	-$0	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$59.94	$59.94	-$0	61% 14874-9334 (24208)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$45.65	$45.65	+$0	47% 1690-1872 (3562)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$32.14	$32.14	-$0	39% 1087-1679 (2766)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$30.42	$30.42	-$0	55% 4411-3608 (8019)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$23.91	$23.91	-$0	40% 2177-3221 (5398)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$20.28	$20.28	-$0	51% 3690-3541 (7231)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$11.29	$11.29	-$0	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$8.16	$8.16	-$0	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6.7	$6.7	-$0	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.1	$5.09	-$0	39% 1055-1660 (2715)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$1.98	$2.93	+$0.95	44% 797-1006 (1803)

northdrawer

Invested

$104.9

Value

$104.9

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

15934-10208 (26142)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$97.36

Value

$97.35

PnL

-$0

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$59.94

Value

$59.94

PnL

-$0

Record

61%

14874-9334 (24208)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$45.65

Value

$45.65

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1690-1872 (3562)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$32.14

Value

$32.14

PnL

-$0

Record

39%

1087-1679 (2766)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$30.42

Value

$30.42

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$23.91

Value

$23.91

PnL

-$0

Record

40%

2177-3221 (5398)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$20.28

Value

$20.28

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

3690-3541 (7231)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$11.29

Value

$11.29

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$8.16

Value

$8.16

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$6.7

Value

$6.7

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$0

Record

39%

1055-1660 (2715)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.98

Value

$2.93

PnL

+$0.95

Record

44%

797-1006 (1803)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.