Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on November 5?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 95¢ · $476 held · ends Nov 5

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$476.49

Combined PnL

-$10.46

Smart Money Entry

98.2¢ → 95¢

-3% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$467.9

Total Shares492

Combined PnL-$15.04

Yes2 traders

Total Value$8.59

Total Shares213

Combined PnL+$4.58

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 98.7¢	$103.63	$99.85	-$3.78	47% 8377-9565 (17942)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$96.49	$93.13	-$3.36	77% 12654-3874 (16528)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$60.85	$59.94	-$0.91	42% 1202-1687 (2889)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$55.61	$53.89	-$1.72	49% 8853-9361 (18214)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$53.37	$51.72	-$1.64	55% 4438-3636 (8074)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$32.17	$31.32	-$0.85	50% 9812-9798 (19610)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99¢	$31.86	$30.59	-$1.27	39% 1067-1680 (2747)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98¢	$24.99	$24.25	-$0.74	40% 1094-1616 (2710)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$11.17	$10.74	-$0.42	59% 11938-8372 (20310)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$7.89	$7.69	-$0.19	47% 1691-1873 (3564)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.19	$5.9	+$4.71	44% 810-1039 (1849)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$4.92	$4.76	-$0.16	50% 706-713 (1419)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$2.82	$2.69	-$0.13	53% 3840-3419 (7259)

mildwindow27

Invested

$103.63

Value

$99.85

PnL

-$3.78

Record

47%

8377-9565 (17942)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$96.49

Value

$93.13

PnL

-$3.36

Record

77%

12654-3874 (16528)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$60.85

Value

$59.94

PnL

-$0.91

Record

42%

1202-1687 (2889)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$55.61

Value

$53.89

PnL

-$1.72

Record

49%

8853-9361 (18214)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$53.37

Value

$51.72

PnL

-$1.64

Record

55%

4438-3636 (8074)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$32.17

Value

$31.32

PnL

-$0.85

Record

50%

9812-9798 (19610)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$31.86

Value

$30.59

PnL

-$1.27

Record

39%

1067-1680 (2747)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$24.99

Value

$24.25

PnL

-$0.74

Record

40%

1094-1616 (2710)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$11.17

Value

$10.74

PnL

-$0.42

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$7.89

Value

$7.69

PnL

-$0.19

Record

47%

1691-1873 (3564)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.19

Value

$5.9

PnL

+$4.71

Record

44%

810-1039 (1849)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.92

Value

$4.76

PnL

-$0.16

Record

50%

706-713 (1419)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.82

Value

$2.69

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

3840-3419 (7259)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.