Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on November 5?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 100¢ · $517 held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$517.38

Combined PnL

$0.63

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$517.19

Total Shares518

Combined PnL+$1.72

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.19

Total Shares193

Combined PnL-$1.09

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 99.6¢	$121.49	$121.85	+$0.35	42% 7033-9821 (16854)
Lucerys	Noavg 99.5¢	$112.28	$112.74	+$0.46	77% 12654-3874 (16528)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$66.36	$66.64	+$0.28	46% 10331-12028 (22359)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$50.37	$50.74	+$0.37	47% 1691-1873 (3564)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$37.17	$37.23	+$0.06	40% 1094-1616 (2710)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$36.57	$36.6	+$0.03	47% 2220-2477 (4697)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.89	$29.97	+$0.08	47% 8377-9565 (17942)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$19.97	$19.98	+$0.01	61% 14883-9337 (24220)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$17.2	$17.23	+$0.04	55% 4438-3636 (8074)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$12.92	$12.92	-$0	51% 3701-3552 (7253)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$11.25	$11.28	+$0.03	59% 11938-8372 (20310)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.19	$0.15	-$1.04	44% 810-1039 (1849)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.09	$0.05	-$0.05	20% 2607-10331 (12938)

godblessme2026

Invested

$121.49

Value

$121.85

PnL

+$0.35

Record

42%

7033-9821 (16854)

Lucerys

Invested

$112.28

Value

$112.74

PnL

+$0.46

Record

77%

12654-3874 (16528)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$66.36

Value

$66.64

PnL

+$0.28

Record

46%

10331-12028 (22359)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$50.37

Value

$50.74

PnL

+$0.37

Record

47%

1691-1873 (3564)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$37.17

Value

$37.23

PnL

+$0.06

Record

40%

1094-1616 (2710)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$36.57

Value

$36.6

PnL

+$0.03

Record

47%

2220-2477 (4697)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.89

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.08

Record

47%

8377-9565 (17942)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$19.97

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$0.01

Record

61%

14883-9337 (24220)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$17.2

Value

$17.23

PnL

+$0.04

Record

55%

4438-3636 (8074)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$12.92

Value

$12.92

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

3701-3552 (7253)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$11.25

Value

$11.28

PnL

+$0.03

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.19

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$1.04

Record

44%

810-1039 (1849)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.05

Record

20%

2607-10331 (12938)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.