Will the highest temperature in Houston be 71°F or below on November 5?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 100¢ · $213 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$212.64
-$24.7
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel | Noavg 99.9¢ | $125.18 | $125.17 | -$0.01 | 50% 9910-9917 (19827) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.94 | $59.94 | -$0 | 49% 8976-9501 (18477) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $26.64 | $26.64 | -$0 | 61% 16040-10339 (26379) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.73 | $0.59 | -$3.69 | 47% 2253-2525 (4778) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $18.79 | $0.21 | -$18.58 | 43% 817-1080 (1897) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.08 | $0.05 | -$0.03 | 58% 20250-14870 (35120) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.4¢ | $38.05 | $0.04 | -$2.39 | 46% 10394-12106 (22500) |
Invested
$125.18
Value
$125.17
PnL
-$0.01
Record
50%
9910-9917 (19827)
Invested
$59.94
Value
$59.94
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
8976-9501 (18477)
Invested
$26.64
Value
$26.64
PnL
-$0
Record
61%
16040-10339 (26379)
Invested
$3.73
Value
$0.59
PnL
-$3.69
Record
47%
2253-2525 (4778)
Invested
$18.79
Value
$0.21
PnL
-$18.58
Record
43%
817-1080 (1897)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.03
Record
58%
20250-14870 (35120)
Invested
$38.05
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$2.39
Record
46%
10394-12106 (22500)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.