Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on November 4?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $92 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$91.53
-$1.61
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-9 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $59.69 | $59.7 | +$0.01 | 49% 8636-9158 (17794) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $15.02 | $15.03 | +$0.01 | 60% 11576-7759 (19335) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $9.95 | $9.95 | -$0 | 79% 12088-3268 (15356) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $5.98 | $5.98 | -$0 | 47% 1630-1807 (3437) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.9¢ | $1.78 | $0.15 | -$1.63 | 18% 4236-19937 (24173) |
Invested
$59.69
Value
$59.7
PnL
+$0.01
Record
49%
8636-9158 (17794)
Invested
$15.02
Value
$15.03
PnL
+$0.01
Record
60%
11576-7759 (19335)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$9.95
Value
$9.95
PnL
-$0
Record
79%
12088-3268 (15356)
Invested
$5.98
Value
$5.98
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
1630-1807 (3437)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$1.78
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$1.63
Record
18%
4236-19937 (24173)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.