Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on November 15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 1.9¢ · $191 held · ended Nov 15

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$190.72

Combined PnL

-$27.54

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$179.74

Total Shares184

Combined PnL+$19.07

Yes6 traders

Total Value$10.99

Total Shares386

Combined PnL-$46.61

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$89.08	$89.16	+$0.08	99% 1609-24 (1633)
VI vibing123<$100	Noavg 75.7¢	$65.11	$84.14	+$19.03	61% 1202-764 (1966)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$6.48	$6.44	-$0.04	57% 836-638 (1474)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.6¢	$21.21	$5.71	-$15.5	29% 308-740 (1048)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.5¢	$31.23	$3.96	-$27.27	42% 803-1100 (1903)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.2¢	$4.61	$0.81	-$3.8	53% 2352-2120 (4472)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.77	$0.18	+$0.94	14% 103-625 (728)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$0.88	$0.17	-$0.71	54% 1238-1053 (2291)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$0.42	$0.15	-$0.27	50% 919-925 (1844)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$89.08

Value

$89.16

PnL

+$0.08

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

vibing123<$100

Invested

$65.11

Value

$84.14

PnL

+$19.03

Record

61%

1202-764 (1966)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.48

Value

$6.44

PnL

-$0.04

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.21

Value

$5.71

PnL

-$15.5

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.23

Value

$3.96

PnL

-$27.27

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.61

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$3.8

Record

53%

2352-2120 (4472)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.77

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0.94

Record

14%

103-625 (728)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.88

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.71

Record

54%

1238-1053 (2291)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.42

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.27

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.0%

1.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3188.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

3288.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.