Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (98%). 4 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 64-65°F on November 15?

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 2.1¢ · $370 held · ended Nov 15

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$369.55

Combined PnL

$48.8

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 2.1¢

-97% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$318.93

Total Shares463

Combined PnL+$160.4

No4 traders

Total Value$50.58

Total Shares200

Combined PnL-$111.6

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Yesavg 32¢	$154.39	$267.15	+$140.75	43% 848-1138 (1986)
VI vibing123CTR	Noavg 85.9¢	$128.8	$31.5	-$97.3	61% 1210-766 (1976)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$12.12	$15.18	+$3.06	49% 900-921 (1821)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 78.4¢	$25.63	$13.68	-$11.95	70% 975-415 (1390)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 38.4¢	$5.49	$9.58	+$4.09	58% 906-664 (1570)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$3.17	$6.58	+$3.41	60% 929-631 (1560)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 53.2¢	$4.97	$6.25	+$1.29	48% 1288-1418 (2706)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$2.19	$6.12	+$3.93	47% 930-1053 (1983)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 52.2¢	$7.6	$4.7	+$0.98	52% 960-882 (1842)
LU luciebot<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$3.35	+$2.9	23% 815-2717 (3532)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$0.2	$3.3	+$3.1	42% 5250-7286 (12536)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$7.55	$2.1	-$5.45	53% 2377-2113 (4490)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$154.39

Value

$267.15

PnL

+$140.75

Record

43%

848-1138 (1986)

vibing123CTR

Invested

$128.8

Value

$31.5

PnL

-$97.3

Record

61%

1210-766 (1976)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.12

Value

$15.18

PnL

+$3.06

Record

49%

900-921 (1821)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$25.63

Value

$13.68

PnL

-$11.95

Record

70%

975-415 (1390)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.49

Value

$9.58

PnL

+$4.09

Record

58%

906-664 (1570)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.17

Value

$6.58

PnL

+$3.41

Record

60%

929-631 (1560)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.97

Value

$6.25

PnL

+$1.29

Record

48%

1288-1418 (2706)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.19

Value

$6.12

PnL

+$3.93

Record

47%

930-1053 (1983)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.6

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0.98

Record

52%

960-882 (1842)

luciebot<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$2.9

Record

23%

815-2717 (3532)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$0.2

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$3.1

Record

42%

5250-7286 (12536)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$7.55

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$5.45

Record

53%

2377-2113 (4490)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.3%

2.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2976.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

3076.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.