Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 62-63°F on November 15?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $201 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$201.34

Combined PnL

$45.76

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$164.26

Total Shares230

Combined PnL+$107.08

No2 traders

Total Value$37.08

Total Shares114

Combined PnL-$61.32

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.1¢	$20.73	$81.7	+$78.6	43% 848-1138 (1986)
VI vibing123<$100	Noavg 86¢	$90.3	$31.5	-$58.8	61% 1209-766 (1975)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 44.7¢	$19.32	$25.48	+$6.15	48% 1288-1418 (2706)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$20.83	$17.14	-$1.13	65% 4388-2415 (6803)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$5.78	$8.18	+$2.4	70% 975-415 (1390)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$2.2	$6.42	+$4.22	50% 966-966 (1932)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$3.05	$6.27	+$3.22	58% 906-664 (1570)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.42	$5.99	+$5.82	14% 109-653 (762)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.4¢	$2.29	$5.86	+$3.57	52% 988-928 (1916)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82¢	$8.1	$5.58	-$2.52	53% 2377-2113 (4490)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$1.5	$3.62	+$2.12	56% 882-689 (1571)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$1.49	$3.6	+$2.11	52% 960-882 (1842)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.73

Value

$81.7

PnL

+$78.6

Record

43%

848-1138 (1986)

vibing123<$100

Invested

$90.3

Value

$31.5

PnL

-$58.8

Record

61%

1209-766 (1975)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.32

Value

$25.48

PnL

+$6.15

Record

48%

1288-1418 (2706)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.83

Value

$17.14

PnL

-$1.13

Record

65%

4388-2415 (6803)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.78

Value

$8.18

PnL

+$2.4

Record

70%

975-415 (1390)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$6.42

PnL

+$4.22

Record

50%

966-966 (1932)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.05

Value

$6.27

PnL

+$3.22

Record

58%

906-664 (1570)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.42

Value

$5.99

PnL

+$5.82

Record

14%

109-653 (762)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.29

Value

$5.86

PnL

+$3.57

Record

52%

988-928 (1916)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.1

Value

$5.58

PnL

-$2.52

Record

53%

2377-2113 (4490)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$3.62

PnL

+$2.12

Record

56%

882-689 (1571)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.49

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$2.11

Record

52%

960-882 (1842)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.