Will the highest temperature in Houston be 59°F or below on November 15?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 87¢ · $392 held · ended Nov 15

Yes13¢No87¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$392.06

Combined PnL

-$54.88

Smart Money Entry

90.2¢ → 86.9¢

-4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$286.39

Total Shares349

Combined PnL-$49.3

Yes4 traders

Total Value$12.11

Total Shares60

Combined PnL-$5.58

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f	Noavg 90.8¢	$244.64	$211.98	-$32.66	68% 89-42 (131)
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 85¢	$99.58	$93.56	+$22.23	42% 803-1100 (1903)
└ No leg	Noavg 85¢	$63.75	$63.04	-$10.65
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 5.7¢	$10.94	$30.52	+$32.88
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 82.7¢	$46.97	$49.03	+$2.06	71% 950-388 (1338)
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.7¢	$112.67	$19.99	-$18.56	99% 1609-24 (1633)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$0.8	$6.82	+$6.02	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 85¢	$5.53	$5.39	-$0.13	49% 854-884 (1738)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$4.04	+$2.22	14% 103-625 (728)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.9¢	$0.36	$1.05	+$0.69	57% 836-638 (1474)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$16.41	$0.21	-$14.51	29% 308-740 (1048)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f

Invested

$244.64

Value

$211.98

PnL

-$32.66

Record

68%

89-42 (131)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$99.58

Value

$93.56

PnL

+$22.23

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

Both legs:

No$63.7585¢-$10.65

Yes$10.945.7¢+$32.88

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$46.97

Value

$49.03

PnL

+$2.06

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$112.67

Value

$19.99

PnL

-$18.56

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$6.82

PnL

+$6.02

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.53

Value

$5.39

PnL

-$0.13

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$4.04

PnL

+$2.22

Record

14%

103-625 (728)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0.69

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.41

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$14.51

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.4%

86.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.