Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on November 14?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $174 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$173.88

Combined PnL

-$42.56

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$171.65

Total Shares172

Combined PnL-$1.28

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.23

Total Shares445

Combined PnL-$41.28

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.4¢	$105.43	$105.79	+$0.36	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$22.25	$22.34	+$0.09	29% 1100-2665 (3765)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$18.09	$18.07	-$0.02	63% 736-439 (1175)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$10.27	$10.26	-$0.01	59% 724-513 (1237)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.11	$5.11	-$0.01	51% 719-703 (1422)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$24.93	$4.98	-$1.7	36% 3754-6795 (10549)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$2.97	$2.97	+$0	51% 769-727 (1496)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$2.13	$2.13	+$0	58% 703-515 (1218)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$27.56	$1.52	-$26.05	55% 1093-897 (1990)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.73	$0.47	-$9.19	31% 161-352 (513)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.5	$0.14	-$2.37	55% 2285-1885 (4170)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$24.25	$0.1	-$3.67	26% 548-1577 (2125)

cigarettes

Invested

$105.43

Value

$105.79

PnL

+$0.36

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$22.25

Value

$22.34

PnL

+$0.09

Record

29%

1100-2665 (3765)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$18.09

Value

$18.07

PnL

-$0.02

Record

63%

736-439 (1175)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$10.27

Value

$10.26

PnL

-$0.01

Record

59%

724-513 (1237)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.11

Value

$5.11

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

719-703 (1422)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$24.93

Value

$4.98

PnL

-$1.7

Record

36%

3754-6795 (10549)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$2.97

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

769-727 (1496)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$2.13

Value

$2.13

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

703-515 (1218)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.56

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$26.05

Record

55%

1093-897 (1990)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.73

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$9.19

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$2.37

Record

55%

2285-1885 (4170)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.25

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$3.67

Record

26%

548-1577 (2125)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.