Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on November 14?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 88¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$1.1K
$9.13
87.6¢ → 87.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 87.9¢ | $413.57 | $388.29 | -$11.75 | 58% 2224-1622 (3846) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 87.4¢ | $206.46 | $209.57 | +$3.12 | 38% 543-874 (1417) |
VI vibing123CTR | Yesavg 12.7¢ | $213.15 | $209.5 | -$3.65 | 62% 1124-676 (1800) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 86.7¢ | $92.01 | $94.12 | +$2.11 | 53% 6618-5816 (12434) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 87.4¢ | $190.51 | $79.46 | +$7.6 | 30% 108-251 (359) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $27.56 | $39.42 | +$11.85 | 56% 1073-841 (1914) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.5¢ | $40.63 | $26.3 | -$1.14 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 85.2¢ | $23.72 | $24.7 | +$0.98 | 73% 778-291 (1069) |
Invested
$413.57
Value
$388.29
PnL
-$11.75
Record
58%
2224-1622 (3846)
Invested
$206.46
Value
$209.57
PnL
+$3.12
Record
38%
543-874 (1417)
Invested
$213.15
Value
$209.5
PnL
-$3.65
Record
62%
1124-676 (1800)
Invested
$92.01
Value
$94.12
PnL
+$2.11
Record
53%
6618-5816 (12434)
HaradwaithInvested
$190.51
Value
$79.46
PnL
+$7.6
Record
30%
108-251 (359)
Invested
$27.56
Value
$39.42
PnL
+$11.85
Record
56%
1073-841 (1914)
Invested
$40.63
Value
$26.3
PnL
-$1.14
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
Invested
$23.72
Value
$24.7
PnL
+$0.98
Record
73%
778-291 (1069)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.