Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on November 14?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 68¢ · $790 held · ends Nov 14

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$790.34

Combined PnL

-$7.13

Smart Money Entry

72.6¢ → 68¢

-6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$629.66

Total Shares936

Combined PnL-$20.12

Yes2 traders

Total Value$160.69

Total Shares462

Combined PnL+$12.99

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 72.8¢	$492.61	$446.82	-$45.79	62% 1124-676 (1800)
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 31.9¢	$176.21	$122.08	+$9	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 67.5¢	$71.62	$70.03	-$1.58	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 78.6¢	$304.65	$55.73	+$7.29	56% 1073-841 (1914)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 31.2¢	$34.61	$38.6	+$3.99	38% 543-874 (1417)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77¢	$40.61	$19.15	+$0.66	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 70¢	$15.69	$14.79	-$0.9	29% 185-443 (628)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 69.2¢	$79.41	$13.44	+$20.73	30% 108-251 (359)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 69.6¢	$10.22	$9.7	-$0.53	73% 778-291 (1069)

vibing123

Invested

$492.61

Value

$446.82

PnL

-$45.79

Record

62%

1124-676 (1800)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$176.21

Value

$122.08

PnL

+$9

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$71.62

Value

$70.03

PnL

-$1.58

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$304.65

Value

$55.73

PnL

+$7.29

Record

56%

1073-841 (1914)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.61

Value

$38.6

PnL

+$3.99

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$40.61

Value

$19.15

PnL

+$0.66

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$15.69

Value

$14.79

PnL

-$0.9

Record

29%

185-443 (628)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$79.41

Value

$13.44

PnL

+$20.73

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$10.22

Value

$9.7

PnL

-$0.53

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.