Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 66-67°F on November 14?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 56¢ · $658 held · ends Nov 14

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$657.54

Combined PnL

$131.54

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 56.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$581.19

Total Shares1,030

Combined PnL-$21.5

Yes2 traders

Total Value$76.35

Total Shares174

Combined PnL+$153.04

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 57.6¢	$489.26	$476	-$13.26	62% 1129-683 (1812)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 59.6¢	$63.27	$59.42	-$3.84	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$314.51	$53.24	+$117.98	55% 1091-888 (1979)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$18.01	$23.11	+$35.06	31% 157-344 (501)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 57¢	$16.78	$14.47	-$0.2	72% 841-329 (1170)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 71.9¢	$24.51	$12.59	-$4.07	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 58¢	$13	$12.55	-$0.45	34% 268-522 (790)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 50¢	$3	$3.36	+$0.36	40% 633-964 (1597)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.8	-$0.05	58% 705-507 (1212)

vibing123

Invested

$489.26

Value

$476

PnL

-$13.26

Record

62%

1129-683 (1812)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$63.27

Value

$59.42

PnL

-$3.84

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$314.51

Value

$53.24

PnL

+$117.98

Record

55%

1091-888 (1979)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.01

Value

$23.11

PnL

+$35.06

Record

31%

157-344 (501)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$16.78

Value

$14.47

PnL

-$0.2

Record

72%

841-329 (1170)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$24.51

Value

$12.59

PnL

-$4.07

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$13

Value

$12.55

PnL

-$0.45

Record

34%

268-522 (790)

241532532432<$100

Invested

Value

$3.36

PnL

+$0.36

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

705-507 (1212)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.