Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 64-65°F on November 14?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 14¢ · $214 held · ends Nov 14

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$214.28

Combined PnL

-$23.02

Smart Money Entry

18¢ → 13.5¢

-25% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$137.45

Total Shares154

Combined PnL+$3.2

Yes5 traders

Total Value$76.83

Total Shares591

Combined PnL-$26.22

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 87.1¢	$92.42	$93.38	+$0.96	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.2¢	$80.3	$57.44	-$22.86	55% 1078-871 (1949)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 86¢	$19.27	$19.72	+$0.45	30% 993-2362 (3355)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 63.5¢	$16.9	$18.49	+$1.59	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
VI vibing123CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.7¢	$19.7	$12.35	-$7.35	62% 1125-676 (1801)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 85¢	$5.67	$5.87	+$0.2	73% 795-298 (1093)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.5	$3.58	+$1.08	57% 2248-1724 (3972)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.56	$1.86	+$3.68	31% 114-255 (369)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.2¢	$2.37	$1.6	-$0.77	39% 579-908 (1487)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$92.42

Value

$93.38

PnL

+$0.96

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.3

Value

$57.44

PnL

-$22.86

Record

55%

1078-871 (1949)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$19.27

Value

$19.72

PnL

+$0.45

Record

30%

993-2362 (3355)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.9

Value

$18.49

PnL

+$1.59

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

vibing123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.7

Value

$12.35

PnL

-$7.35

Record

62%

1125-676 (1801)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$5.67

Value

$5.87

PnL

+$0.2

Record

73%

795-298 (1093)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$3.58

PnL

+$1.08

Record

57%

2248-1724 (3972)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.56

Value

$1.86

PnL

+$3.68

Record

31%

114-255 (369)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.37

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$0.77

Record

39%

579-908 (1487)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.1%

13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$561.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

661.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.