Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 62-63°F on November 14?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 99¢ · $166 held · ends Nov 14

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$166.32

Combined PnL

-$34.88

Smart Money Entry

98.6¢ → 99¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$160.41

Total Shares162

Combined PnL-$0.99

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.91

Total Shares438

Combined PnL-$33.89

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 98.5¢	$104.57	$105.05	+$0.48	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$22.07	$22.19	+$0.11	42% 1625-2287 (3912)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$13.02	$12.98	-$0.03	59% 724-513 (1237)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99¢	$7.2	$7.18	-$0.01	49% 785-823 (1608)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$5.11	$5.12	+$0.01	63% 736-439 (1175)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$24.79	$4.94	-$1.54	36% 3754-6795 (10549)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$27.56	$4.09	-$23.47	55% 1093-897 (1990)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99¢	$2.95	$2.95	+$0	51% 804-766 (1570)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.73	$1.44	-$8.28	31% 161-352 (513)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.5	$0.37	-$2.13	55% 2285-1885 (4170)

cigarettes

Invested

$104.57

Value

$105.05

PnL

+$0.48

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$22.07

Value

$22.19

PnL

+$0.11

Record

42%

1625-2287 (3912)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$13.02

Value

$12.98

PnL

-$0.03

Record

59%

724-513 (1237)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.18

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

785-823 (1608)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.11

Value

$5.12

PnL

+$0.01

Record

63%

736-439 (1175)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$24.79

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$1.54

Record

36%

3754-6795 (10549)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.56

Value

$4.09

PnL

-$23.47

Record

55%

1093-897 (1990)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

804-766 (1570)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.73

Value

$1.44

PnL

-$8.28

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$2.13

Record

55%

2285-1885 (4170)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.