Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 60-61°F on November 14?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 100¢ · $161 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$161.36

Combined PnL

-$43.44

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$159.76

Total Shares160

Combined PnL-$1.4

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.6

Total Shares458

Combined PnL-$42.04

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.6¢	$105.69	$106	+$0.32	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$22.32	$22.39	+$0.07	34% 229-452 (681)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$13.13	$13.11	-$0.01	51% 769-727 (1496)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.16	$5.16	+$0	49% 753-797 (1550)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.12	$5.12	-$0.01	46% 1095-1300 (2395)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$24.98	$4.99	-$1.76	36% 3754-6795 (10549)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$2.98	$2.98	+$0	63% 736-439 (1175)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$27.56	$1.06	-$26.5	55% 1093-897 (1990)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.73	$0.37	-$9.35	31% 161-352 (513)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.5	$0.1	-$2.41	55% 2285-1885 (4170)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$24.33	$0.07	-$3.78	26% 548-1577 (2125)

cigarettes

Invested

$105.69

Value

$106

PnL

+$0.32

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$22.32

Value

$22.39

PnL

+$0.07

Record

34%

229-452 (681)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$13.13

Value

$13.11

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

769-727 (1496)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.16

Value

$5.16

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

753-797 (1550)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.12

Value

$5.12

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

1095-1300 (2395)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$24.98

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$1.76

Record

36%

3754-6795 (10549)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$2.98

Value

$2.98

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

736-439 (1175)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.56

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$26.5

Record

55%

1093-897 (1990)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.73

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$9.35

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$2.41

Record

55%

2285-1885 (4170)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.33

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$3.78

Record

26%

548-1577 (2125)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.