Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 56-57°F on November 14?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $100 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$100.21

Combined PnL

-$47.71

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$99.95

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$0.05

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.26

Total Shares528

Combined PnL-$47.76

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.92	$79.96	+$0.04	99% 1281-15 (1296)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$19.99	+$0.01	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$27.56	$0.15	-$27.41	55% 1093-897 (1990)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.73	$0.05	-$9.67	31% 161-352 (513)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.91	$0.02	-$3.89	26% 548-1577 (2125)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.5	$0.01	-$2.49	55% 2285-1885 (4170)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.04	$0.01	-$2.03	30% 240-572 (812)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.01	-$1.81	36% 3754-6795 (10549)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	49% 753-797 (1550)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$79.92

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

99%

1281-15 (1296)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.56

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$27.41

Record

55%

1093-897 (1990)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.73

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.67

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.91

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.89

Record

26%

548-1577 (2125)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.49

Record

55%

2285-1885 (4170)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.04

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.03

Record

30%

240-572 (812)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.81

Record

36%

3754-6795 (10549)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

49%

753-797 (1550)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.