Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on November 13?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$171.18

Smart Money Entry

91.4¢ → 97.7¢

+7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,084

Combined PnL+$68.19

Yes4 traders

Total Value$85.28

Total Shares3,046

Combined PnL-$239.37

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f	Noavg 91.2¢	$934.91	$1.0K	+$70.98	71% 76-31 (107)
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 12.2¢	$348.89	$56.87	-$184.68	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93.8¢	$56.15	$15.76	-$3.12	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$14.87	$14.96	+$0.09	58% 656-481 (1137)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 11.9¢	$200.87	$12.83	-$40.05	38% 543-874 (1417)
HaradwaithCTR	Yesavg 8.7¢	$223.46	$10.79	-$11.29	30% 108-251 (359)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$9.27	$9.17	-$0.09	48% 710-781 (1491)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$5.95	$5.89	-$0.06	50% 726-731 (1457)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 90.8¢	$4.54	$4.91	+$0.37	73% 778-291 (1069)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$4.85	$4.9	+$0.05	58% 632-454 (1086)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$131.62	$4.78	-$3.35	56% 1073-841 (1914)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$2.19	$2.16	-$0.02	45% 1020-1259 (2279)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f

Invested

$934.91

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$70.98

Record

71%

76-31 (107)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$348.89

Value

$56.87

PnL

-$184.68

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$56.15

Value

$15.76

PnL

-$3.12

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$14.87

Value

$14.96

PnL

+$0.09

Record

58%

656-481 (1137)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$200.87

Value

$12.83

PnL

-$40.05

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

HaradwaithCTR

Yes

Invested

$223.46

Value

$10.79

PnL

-$11.29

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$9.27

Value

$9.17

PnL

-$0.09

Record

48%

710-781 (1491)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.95

Value

$5.89

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

726-731 (1457)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$4.54

Value

$4.91

PnL

+$0.37

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

632-454 (1086)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$131.62

Value

$4.78

PnL

-$3.35

Record

56%

1073-841 (1914)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$2.19

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$0.02

Record

45%

1020-1259 (2279)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.