Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on November 13?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 51¢ · $265 held · ended Nov 13

Yes49¢No51¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$265.06

Combined PnL

$203.2

Smart Money Entry

61.2¢ → 51¢

-17% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$180.8

Total Shares239

Combined PnL+$141.63

Yes1 trader

Total Value$34.77

Total Shares124

Combined PnL+$61.58

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100	Noavg 62.9¢	$74.59	$85.36	+$10.77	71% 76-31 (107)
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 47.9¢	$268.77	$49.32	+$33.42	38% 543-874 (1417)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.5¢	$18	$27.48	+$84.76
└ No leg	Noavg 47.9¢	$20.11	$21.84	-$51.34
HE hello.67	Noavg 48¢	$833.45	$44.17	+$131.85	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$140.07	$34.77	+$61.58	56% 1073-841 (1914)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 75.8¢	$37.95	$17.31	-$2.59	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 71¢	$15.91	$15.54	-$0.37	73% 778-291 (1069)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 63.5¢	$6.5	$6.7	+$0.2	50% 726-731 (1457)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 55.5¢	$9.12	$3.34	+$1.89	48% 684-728 (1412)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 69¢	$3.51	$3.33	-$0.18	48% 710-781 (1491)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 53¢	$3.26	$3.3	+$0.03	50% 651-658 (1309)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 53¢	$1.72	$1.74	+$0.02	58% 632-454 (1086)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100

Invested

$74.59

Value

$85.36

PnL

+$10.77

Record

71%

76-31 (107)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$268.77

Value

$49.32

PnL

+$33.42

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

Both legs:

Yes$1831.5¢+$84.76

No$20.1147.9¢-$51.34

hello.67

Invested

$833.45

Value

$44.17

PnL

+$131.85

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$140.07

Value

$34.77

PnL

+$61.58

Record

56%

1073-841 (1914)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$37.95

Value

$17.31

PnL

-$2.59

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$15.91

Value

$15.54

PnL

-$0.37

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$6.5

Value

$6.7

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

726-731 (1457)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$9.12

Value

$3.34

PnL

+$1.89

Record

48%

684-728 (1412)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.51

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$0.18

Record

48%

710-781 (1491)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.26

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

651-658 (1309)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$1.72

Value

$1.74

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

632-454 (1086)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.