Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on November 13?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 95¢ · $307 held · ended Nov 13

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$307.34

Combined PnL

$82.23

Smart Money Entry

83.9¢ → 94.5¢

+13% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$258.44

Total Shares285

Combined PnL+$83.53

Yes4 traders

Total Value$48.9

Total Shares223

Combined PnL-$1.3

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 85.9¢	$341.21	$135.51	+$7.9	38% 543-874 (1417)
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$803.84	$36.98	-$8.33	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 75.4¢	$400.76	$30.76	+$64.95	56% 1073-841 (1914)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82¢	$52.88	$27.25	+$4.53	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 80.5¢	$33.31	$25.61	+$5.06	73% 778-291 (1069)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 84.8¢	$17.19	$17.74	+$0.56	58% 656-481 (1137)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.6¢	$4.93	$10.25	+$5.33	71% 76-31 (107)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 93¢	$5.62	$5.65	+$0.03	58% 632-454 (1086)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 95¢	$4.94	$4.86	-$0.08	50% 651-658 (1309)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 80¢	$4.14	$4.52	+$0.39	48% 710-781 (1491)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 83¢	$4.22	$4.45	+$0.23	50% 690-680 (1370)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 95¢	$2.11	$2.08	-$0.03	50% 726-731 (1457)
1D 1DVSBSTDCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.2¢	$2.01	$1.36	+$0.86	99% 1015-11 (1026)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.67	$0.31	+$0.85	36% 3613-6424 (10037)

241532532432

Invested

$341.21

Value

$135.51

PnL

+$7.9

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$803.84

Value

$36.98

PnL

-$8.33

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$400.76

Value

$30.76

PnL

+$64.95

Record

56%

1073-841 (1914)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$52.88

Value

$27.25

PnL

+$4.53

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$33.31

Value

$25.61

PnL

+$5.06

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$17.19

Value

$17.74

PnL

+$0.56

Record

58%

656-481 (1137)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.93

Value

$10.25

PnL

+$5.33

Record

71%

76-31 (107)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.62

Value

$5.65

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

632-454 (1086)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.94

Value

$4.86

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

651-658 (1309)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.14

Value

$4.52

PnL

+$0.39

Record

48%

710-781 (1491)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.22

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0.23

Record

50%

690-680 (1370)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.11

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

726-731 (1457)

1DVSBSTDCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.01

Value

$1.36

PnL

+$0.86

Record

99%

1015-11 (1026)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.67

Value

$0.31

PnL

+$0.85

Record

36%

3613-6424 (10037)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.