Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on November 12?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 100¢ · $874 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
$873.96
-$47.66
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $825.09 | $825.09 | +$0 | 99% 398-3 (401) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $39.96 | $39.96 | +$0 | 53% 5912-5294 (11206) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $37.12 | $6.13 | -$31 | 61% 1153-751 (1904) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $15.22 | $2.51 | -$12.71 | 68% 2115-1000 (3115) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $7.39 | $0.11 | -$0.91 | 53% 459-411 (870) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | $0.08 | -$0.38 | 39% 3421-5409 (8830) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $30 | $0.08 | -$2.66 | 27% 943-2516 (3459) |
Invested
$825.09
Value
$825.09
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
398-3 (401)
Invested
$39.96
Value
$39.96
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5912-5294 (11206)
Invested
$37.12
Value
$6.13
PnL
-$31
Record
61%
1153-751 (1904)
Invested
$15.22
Value
$2.51
PnL
-$12.71
Record
68%
2115-1000 (3115)
Invested
$7.39
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$0.91
Record
53%
459-411 (870)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$0.38
Record
39%
3421-5409 (8830)
Invested
$30
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$2.66
Record
27%
943-2516 (3459)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.