Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on November 12?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $40 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$40.37

Combined PnL

-$71.3

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$39.98

Total Shares40

Combined PnL+$0.02

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.39

Total Shares789

Combined PnL-$71.32

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$39.96	$39.98	+$0.02	53% 6040-5408 (11448)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$37.12	$0.2	-$36.92	60% 1155-771 (1926)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$15.22	$0.08	-$15.14	64% 2127-1183 (3310)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.31	$0.05	-$8.27	37% 3439-5885 (9324)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.18	$0.03	-$6.15	49% 471-500 (971)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.18	$0.02	-$3.16	27% 947-2550 (3497)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	30% 2939-6893 (9832)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.78	$0	-$0.77	35% 512-942 (1454)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.96

Value

$39.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

6040-5408 (11448)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.12

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$36.92

Record

60%

1155-771 (1926)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.22

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$15.14

Record

64%

2127-1183 (3310)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.31

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.27

Record

37%

3439-5885 (9324)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.18

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.15

Record

49%

471-500 (971)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.18

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.16

Record

27%

947-2550 (3497)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

30%

2939-6893 (9832)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.78

Value

PnL

-$0.77

Record

35%

512-942 (1454)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.