Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on November 12?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $117 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$116.57

Combined PnL

-$23.7

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$88.06

Total Shares88

Combined PnL+$0.15

Yes2 traders

Total Value$28.5

Total Shares576

Combined PnL-$23.84

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$39.82	$39.96	+$0.14	53% 6040-5408 (11448)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$27.49	$27.48	-$0.01	44% 501-627 (1128)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$37.12	$20.21	-$16.91	60% 1155-771 (1926)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$15.22	$8.29	-$6.93	64% 2127-1183 (3310)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$7.01	$7.03	+$0.02	42% 814-1136 (1950)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.16	$5.16	-$0	47% 506-567 (1073)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$4.99	$5	+$0	18% 80-367 (447)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.44	$3.43	-$0	63% 451-268 (719)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.82

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

6040-5408 (11448)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$27.49

Value

$27.48

PnL

-$0.01

Record

44%

501-627 (1128)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.12

Value

$20.21

PnL

-$16.91

Record

60%

1155-771 (1926)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.22

Value

$8.29

PnL

-$6.93

Record

64%

2127-1183 (3310)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$7.01

Value

$7.03

PnL

+$0.02

Record

42%

814-1136 (1950)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.16

Value

$5.16

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

506-567 (1073)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

18%

80-367 (447)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.44

Value

$3.43

PnL

-$0

Record

63%

451-268 (719)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.