Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on November 12?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 11¢ · $224 held · ends Nov 12

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$223.81

Combined PnL

$29.17

Smart Money Entry

8.7¢ → 10.8¢

+24% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$166.52

Total Shares1,540

Combined PnL+$31.21

No3 traders

Total Value$57.11

Total Shares63

Combined PnL-$2.05

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$79.96	$98.2	+$18.24	68% 2115-1000 (3115)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$38.44	$36.4	-$2.04	53% 5912-5294 (11206)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$37.12	$36.34	-$0.78	61% 1153-751 (1904)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$65.82	$31.98	+$13.76	34% 370-706 (1076)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 86.8¢	$14.4	$14.46	+$0.06	77% 632-192 (824)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.3¢	$28.04	$6.25	-$0.07	55% 729-596 (1325)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.96

Value

$98.2

PnL

+$18.24

Record

68%

2115-1000 (3115)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$38.44

Value

$36.4

PnL

-$2.04

Record

53%

5912-5294 (11206)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.12

Value

$36.34

PnL

-$0.78

Record

61%

1153-751 (1904)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.82

Value

$31.98

PnL

+$13.76

Record

34%

370-706 (1076)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$14.4

Value

$14.46

PnL

+$0.06

Record

77%

632-192 (824)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$28.04

Value

$6.25

PnL

-$0.07

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.3%

10.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$711.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

811.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.