Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on November 12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 75¢ · $514 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$514.48
-$49.89
79.8¢ → 74.5¢
-7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 80¢ | $240.05 | $226.5 | -$13.55 | 31% 285-621 (906) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 80.3¢ | $184.61 | $173.58 | -$11.03 | 68% 2063-953 (3016) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 36.1¢ | $118.12 | $91.56 | -$26.56 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 72.7¢ | $23.5 | $18.88 | +$1.49 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $4.2 | $3.96 | -$0.24 | 80% 558-142 (700) |
Invested
$240.05
Value
$226.5
PnL
-$13.55
Record
31%
285-621 (906)
Invested
$184.61
Value
$173.58
PnL
-$11.03
Record
68%
2063-953 (3016)
Invested
$118.12
Value
$91.56
PnL
-$26.56
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$23.5
Value
$18.88
PnL
+$1.49
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$3.96
PnL
-$0.24
Record
80%
558-142 (700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.