Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on November 12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 56¢ · $409 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$408.63
$13.53
54.5¢ → 56¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 54.6¢ | $222.89 | $232.77 | +$9.88 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
HE hello.67ARB<$100 | Noavg 52.9¢ | $104.44 | $111.8 | +$7.37 | 68% 2064-954 (3018) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 52.9¢ | $81.89 | $88.15 | +$6.27 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 41¢ | $22.55 | $23.65 | +$1.1 | |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $37.82 | $41.14 | +$3.32 | 32% 290-625 (915) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $11.4 | $11.2 | -$0.2 | 53% 5667-5092 (10759) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 57.5¢ | $18.47 | $7.91 | +$0.53 | 54% 563-474 (1037) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $3.81 | $3.81 | -$0 | 80% 562-144 (706) |
Invested
$222.89
Value
$232.77
PnL
+$9.88
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$104.44
Value
$111.8
PnL
+$7.37
Record
68%
2064-954 (3018)
Both legs:
Invested
$37.82
Value
$41.14
PnL
+$3.32
Record
32%
290-625 (915)
Invested
$11.4
Value
$11.2
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
5667-5092 (10759)
Invested
$18.47
Value
$7.91
PnL
+$0.53
Record
54%
563-474 (1037)
Invested
$3.81
Value
$3.81
PnL
-$0
Record
80%
562-144 (706)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.